How many jobs can AI kill

I’m confident that AI is not going to wipe out anywhere close to 25M jobs on net over the next decade. If technological shocks caused net, long-run displacement, employment in the US would be 0. Instead, it’s among its highest peacetime age-adjusted levels. But… 1/2

…AI could absolutely drive gross displacement; think of automobiles displacing horse-related jobs even as they created new types of auto manufacturing & services jobs. That’s painful for workers, especially in the short-run & especially for workers in jobs more automatable.

Important to note however that even the amount of gross displacement from AI is highly uncertain; most of its use cases so far augment some tasks rather than replacing entire jobs.